Whether we like it or not, the best returns come from what seem bold decisions at that time.
Yet bold is not enough.
The trick is in being bold and well-balanced. (Spoiler alert: Link in comments for a an opportunity to test my solution at no cost)
The two seem contradictory until you look at well-balanced as being:
1 Free of biases:
What information should you seek to manage overconfidence?
How could opposing views be TRUE?
What assumptions are you making?
How could these turn out to be FALSE?
Adequately informed given the inherent level of uncertainty:
Is relevant additional data available?
In high uncertainty environments, info will not be available and we might over fit or data mine. What do I know about this situation?
What are the possible results/outcomes?
What are the respective probability ranges?
What information can I seek to further narrow the ranges of my estimates?
3. Reflective of what is important for you (individual or company):
For what purpose are we taking this decision?
What is important in this situation?
4. Well-timed:
What options am I denying myself in postponing this decision?
How could delaying this decision reduce my options?
What resources are being put into postponing this decision?
How can deciding so early be a bad plan?
What are the steps for making this decision?
5. Free from emotional-noise:
What do I feel about this?
What will I think about this decision 3 months from now?
What is this decision triggering in me?
What do I tell myself about this situation?
What am I imagining in my mind?
These are questions that allow one to cut through uncertainty for added clarity.
With the right mindset and the right framework bold and well-balanced is within your reach.
You become used to seeing uncertainty without feeling insecurity.
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